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The World after the COVID-19 Lockdown

November economic review
| Investments, Market Forces

Life After COVID-19 (Part 1)

The world changed dramatically in the first three months of 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic  has resulted in a high number of deaths across the globe. Governments have tailored social and economic policies to create the safest path through the effects of the pandemic, but the world remains anxious. We are working hard to maintain resilient, diversified portfolios capable of weathering a potential economic crisis.

Over the next three weeks will be discussing what the economic, social and political landscape could possibly look like hereafter. Please see attached the first note the series, in which we discuss the results of a recent survey conducted amongst the incumbent underlying asset managers used across Graviton solutions. We will also highlight the insights from our market research team.

read more on part 1…

Life After COVID-19 (Part 2)

The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor even that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet it is a trap of logicians. It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden; its wilderness lies in wait.”                                                                                                                   – G.K. Chesterton

This second note will explore trends and drivers that are influencing, and will shape global economic growth and the contextual environment post COVID-19.

As such, we will try to look beyond the Great Lockdown recession, through understanding what waves of change are in the making.

read more on part 2… 

Life After COVID-19 (Part 3)

The COVID-19 crisis, far from showing us that we do not understand cause and effect, reminds us of how much it matters: how much we should pay attention to the real-world effects of the policies we put in place. To this extent, the novel coronavirus is an alarm bell, urging us to wake from our collective dogmatic slumber. This is the reality of our uncertain economic future. How can society prevail in the face of exponential change? We are living in a period of truly transformative change where many of us could be surprised by the scale and pace of developments. Right now, we are living in era where there is a new set of technologies coming together that could redraw not only finance, culture and society, but also our health and ethics. Humanity could change more in the next 50 years than in the previous 300 years. Growth, or rather the lack of it, is a key issue of our times.

“Futures are never given. They are created.” The Dinokeng Scenarios, 2009

The seeds of the future exist in the present. This final note of the COVID-19 chronicles moves through the contours of a post COVID-19 landscape, focusing on factors like debt, deglobalisation, digitalisation and demographics. These forces of change and their dynamics will determine asset prices, risks and macro-economic metrics. A new social compact and pragmatic approach is needed, starting with a frank conversation about the tough trade-offs that will be required to lift global economic growth after the COVID-19 recession.

read more on part 3…

Scenario analysis. 

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